VIVAnews - The earthquake, which triggered tsunami, that hit Mentawai on Monday, October 25, 2010, killed more than 450. Nonetheless, it had no connection with the giant quake which had earlier been predicted by researchers.
Where would the exact place that would be hit by the future 8.8 magnitude earthquake?
According to Professor Kerry Edward Sieh of Earth Observatory of Singapore, which has long studied the Mentawai area with the Indonesian Institute of Science (LIPI), almost every megathrust between Pagai Selatan and Batu islands has never collided with each other since 1797.
"This could enable a slip of as far as eight to 12 meters to occur in the megathrust," Sieh told VIVAnews through an email.
Their GPS data implies that the fault took place on the lower and inner part of the islands facing West Sumatra.
"If another earthquake happens, then the scale may reach 8.8 magnitude," Sieh said. As an illustration, a tremor that shook the area in 1797 triggered a 5-meter high tsunami in Muara, Padang, West Sumatra.
Sieh said if the megathrust slips only occur on the western part of Siberut, Pagai Utara, and Sipora islands, fatal waves may curl up the western coast of the islands.
Meanwhile, if the slips only occur on the lower part of the islands, the water surface around the islands would level up at one to three meters, as it was in Nias during the 2005 earthquake.
In this case, a small quantity of seawater would accumulate and generate tsunami.
Should the slip occur on the eastern part of Siberut, Sipora and Pagai Utara, the water on the northern part of the islands would be interrupted, prompting tsunami on the western coast of Sumatra.
Varied mitigation must be set up in every province.
Where would the exact place that would be hit by the future 8.8 magnitude earthquake?
According to Professor Kerry Edward Sieh of Earth Observatory of Singapore, which has long studied the Mentawai area with the Indonesian Institute of Science (LIPI), almost every megathrust between Pagai Selatan and Batu islands has never collided with each other since 1797.
"This could enable a slip of as far as eight to 12 meters to occur in the megathrust," Sieh told VIVAnews through an email.
Their GPS data implies that the fault took place on the lower and inner part of the islands facing West Sumatra.
"If another earthquake happens, then the scale may reach 8.8 magnitude," Sieh said. As an illustration, a tremor that shook the area in 1797 triggered a 5-meter high tsunami in Muara, Padang, West Sumatra.
Sieh said if the megathrust slips only occur on the western part of Siberut, Pagai Utara, and Sipora islands, fatal waves may curl up the western coast of the islands.
Meanwhile, if the slips only occur on the lower part of the islands, the water surface around the islands would level up at one to three meters, as it was in Nias during the 2005 earthquake.
In this case, a small quantity of seawater would accumulate and generate tsunami.
Should the slip occur on the eastern part of Siberut, Sipora and Pagai Utara, the water on the northern part of the islands would be interrupted, prompting tsunami on the western coast of Sumatra.
Varied mitigation must be set up in every province.
The earthquake-prone area, he said, have to prepare tremor-resistant buildings. Villages must also accommodate homes that can stand tsunami.
